Peter Cox’s emergent insights

In Episode 54 of Forecast, Peter Cox from the University of Exeter gives Mike the inside story about how the “emergent constraints” approach is reshaping our ability to wring every last drop of useful information from climate models. It’s a two step process. First, using climate models, establish a relationship between something you care about in the future to something that is mechanistically related and for which we have modern/historical observations. Then, construct a meta-model that is constrained by the models’ varying ability to simulate the observed variable. Bob’s your uncle. It can be more complicated than that, but Peter’s genius is identifying, probing, and polishing simple nuggets of science, many of which end up published in Nature. And speaking of Nature, we kick it off by discussing the benefits of knowing and, let’s just call it, “handling” your editors.

Peter Cox at work.

1 Comment

  1. Thanks for the podcast. The modelling concept can be applied to forecasting anything,I think Brexit would be a good next shot.
    The critical benefit of having different personalities in the room for adventurous projects applies to science and again to life. I hope we can see more of the extensions of the future applications of this opportunity.
    Since finishing my earning career I have planted an orchard of 55 trees to date and regretfully anticipate going semi tropical soon!

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