Extremes are the new normal, with Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick

The causes of heat waves are kind of like the controls on a car. We know that pressure systems, land-atmosphere interactions, and modes of variability like ENSO act to control extremes, just as we know that the steering wheel, moderated by the brake and gas pedals, controls the direction and velocity of the car. But imagine driving a car blindfolded. Yes, you know what the controls do, but the chances of hitting something hard are pretty high if you keep the gas pedal down, careening across even the most familiar of roads. For extremes, the moment-to-moment, season-to-season occurrence of extremes will remain challenging to predict, like the exact moment at which you’ll veer out of your lane, but the coming impact of blindly increasing emissions is more certain. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick from the University of New South Wales endured the horrendous heat of Australia’s 2017 summer – pregnant, in a badly insulated house with wobbly air conditioning – and is studying heat waves and how they will change in a persistently warming climate. As Sarah tells Mike, the news is almost uniformly not good. Unless the foot comes off the gas pedal, the car is going to hit the wall: rare events in today’s climate are likely to become seasonally persistent; different emission pathways might delay but won’t alter the ultimate arrival of catastrophic heat. Of course, society could adapt, and Australians could end up living the bulk of their lives in air conditioned spaces, at the cost of further emission increases, radical changes to lifestyle, and eye-popping expense. Is this the world we want? Let’s hope not, but the mitigation equivalent of self-driving cars is not going to magically appear. It’s just us.

Music: Balkan Qoulou by Watcha Clan CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 US; Backed Vibes Clean by Kevin MacLeod CC BY 3.0

Jory Lerback and gender inequities in peer review

Today’s interview, with Jory Lerback from the University of Utah, has both nothing and everything to do with climate science. I think for the first time in the history of Forecast, no one mentioned the word climate. Instead, we talked about Jory’s recent Nature Comment entitled “Journals invite too few women to referee“.

Jory’s work arose out of her time between undergraduate and graduate studies, when she worked at AGU headquarters analyzing their massive database of authors and referees.

There is some good news on the gender equity front. For the youngest cohorts of geosciences, women are at ~ 40% of corresponding authors.

But otherwise,  it’s still discouraging. Overall, women are about 28% of AGU authors, yet make up only 20% of the pool of referees. So, even relative to their low representation as authors, women are even more underrepresented as referees.

The problem arises at least in part because corresponding authors recommend too few women and editors select too few women. Women also decline reviews at slightly higher rates.

At Nature, our informal analysis shows roughly similar results, although in some fields, submitting authors recommend women referees in the single digit range.

Addressing gender inequity in science is a perpetual topic, but for the specific case of referees, there is at least a practical way forward. Authors — recommend female referees! Editors — invite female referees … and when invited referees decline, ask for recommendations for appropriate female alternatives.

Restaurants redux

My post on restaurant picks for AGU 2016 was one of the more popular blog entries to date on Forecast, so I thought I’d add a quick podcast on the same topic. I got together with two of my colleagues from Nature Chemical Biology, Mirella Bucci and Grant Miura, to talk through some of my list, and a few new additions. We recorded in the loud, reverb-laden Nature office, so the audio quality is horrendous. And I did virtually none of my usual editing. Quick and dirty, just like a good Mission burrito. Happy eating!

AGU 2016 restaurant recommendations

Due to a flood of requests (ok, one, from Amy Clement) I’m providing an update of my restaurant recommendations for AGU. Last time I mentioned that prices are up. The big update for this year is that prices are up, again, in a big way. Options are terrific, but bring your piggy bank. It can also be extremely hard to get into the more interesting restaurants. So for me, the restaurant scene really epitomizes the Bay Area: yes, you can find great, cheap stuff … but a lot of the really excellent options are far too expensive and crowded. Continue reading →

Laura Wilcox

Inequities exist throughout the scientific enterprise. Women continue to be progressively underrepresented at more senior career stages. Access to excellent research universities is unequally distributed. Representation by many minority groups is low. Nature Geoscience has an entire Focus issue on accessibility, or the lack thereof. Continue reading →

An update on the 1.5 °C warming threshold

Over the past few months I’ve discussed with a variety of guests the emerging idea of trying to keep global warming below 1.5 °C, and our family of journals has certainly been active on the topic, particularly with regard to feasibility and mitigation pathways.

From Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C, Nature doi:10.1038/nature18307.
An example of the emissions required to get close to 1.5 (blue), versus unregulated emissions (red). There’s a lot of space in between! From Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C, Rogelj et al., Nature doi:10.1038/nature18307.

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Three decades of ice core science with Dorthe Dahl-Jensen

Dorthe Dahl-Jensen is one of the leaders of the second generation of Danish ice core scientists, following on from pioneers like Willy Dansgaard and Sigfus Johnsen. She’s began publishing in Nature and Science since 1993, and now has 16 papers between the two. Her career spans technical details, modeling, age models, abrupt change, isotopic interpretation … nearly any topic you can imagine about the Greenland ice cores.

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Yusuke Yokoyama narrowly misses career in baseball, settles for stellar career in science

Nearly everyone I’ve interviewed so far has a healthy dose of “what if” in their background. But maybe no one more so than Yusuke Yokoyama, a star paleoclimatologist – geochemist – engineer – inventor at the University of Tokyo.

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Restaurant recommendations for AGU 2015

I tweeted a bunch of restaurant recommendations for #AGU14. It seemed worthwhile to collect them all in one location. Here they are, with some additions/removals and brief comments. One big change since 2014 is that prices are up. A lot. In some cases by 40% or so. You can expect to pay $14 for a fancy sandwich and in some places $15 for a cocktail. Ugh. Good luck. Happy to take suggestions/requests.

High end Greek:
Kokkari Estiatoria Continue reading →